SAY YOU FIX, ENJOY AND RELAX THE DELETERIOUS EFFECT OF PEG ANNOUNCEMENTS ON FISCAL DISCIPLINE

This paper explores the impact of actual exchange rate regimes on fiscal discipline, which we purportedly link to the effect of announcing the peg and to the availability of external funds. To stress this point, the focus of the analysis is emerging markets spanning from the beginning of the nineties, given the importance of financial integration in the last fifteen years and the centrality of external financing for these countries. We empirically show that announcing the pegs has deleterious effects on fiscal discipline, while ‘de facto’ pegs which have not been announced deliver superior fiscal outcomes. The evidence suggests that this is due to the initial positive credibility shock of the announcement, which allows for easier and less costly access to the financing of fiscal deficits in emerging countries.exchange rate regimes, fiscal discipline

DETERMINANTS AND IMPACT OF FINANCIAL SECTOR FDI TO EMERGING

This paper reviews the theoretical literature explaining financial FDI, as well as the empirical results on the determinants of financial FDI and its potential effects for the home country. From this revision, we conclude that, at the present stage, the existing theoretical paradigms need to be adapted to explain the recent surge in international banks’ local operations in emerging countries financial sectors. Macroeconomic and risk diversification theories would seem particularly well- suited to explain this reality. The empirical literature on financial FDI has concentrated on bank-specific factors and much less so on macroeconomic determinants, particularly push factors where generally only general FDI literature is available. The survey draws on this literature in those cases where no specific results for financial FDI exist. Finally, the effects of financial FDI on the home country are virtually unknown. The literature on general FDI has focused on employment, trade and investment effects, yet the consequences on the profitability and systemic risk of home’s financial system remain a topic for debate.

Handling Uncertainties in Process Optimization

Esta tesis doctoral presenta el estudio de técnicas que permiten manejar las incertidumbres en la optimización de procesos, desde el punto de vista del comportamiento aleatorio de las variables y de los errores en los modelos utilizados en la optimización. Para el tratamiento de las variables inciertas, se presenta la aplicación de la Programación de dos Etapas y Optimización Probabilística a un proceso de hidrodesulfuración. Los resultados permiten asegurar factibilidad en la operación, independiente del valor que tome la variable aleatoria dentro de su distribución de probabilidad. Acerca del manejo de la incertidumbre derivada del conocimiento parcial del proceso, se ha estudiado el método de Optimización en Tiempo Real con adaptación de modificadores, proponiendo mejoras que permiten: (1) evitar infactibilidades en su evolución, (2) obtener el óptimo real del proceso sin necesidad de estimar sus gradientes y (3) identificar las limitaciones para su aplicación en sistemas dinámicos de horizonteDepartamento de Ingeniería de Sistemas y Automátic

The determinants of different components of campaign spending in municipal elections in Chile, 2008-2012

Como en Chile hay información del tipo de gasto en que incurren los candidatos en campaña, pasamos de estudiar quién gasta más a analizar en qué gastan más los candidatos y qué determina sus tipos de gasto. Explicamos por qué los candidatos gastan de distinta forma sus fondos de campaña. Usamos información de los 54.276 ítems de gasto electoral reportados ante el Servicio Electoral por 2.390 candidatos a alcalde en las 345 comunas en 2008 y 2012. Con características sociodemográficas de las comunas, militancia, condición de incumbencia y género de los candidatos, evaluamos y explicamos las diferencias en los tipos de gasto. Contrario a lo que sugiere la literatura, los incumbentes chilenos gastan más en propaganda que los desafiantes. Aunque dedican más dinero a propaganda que los de la Concertación, los candidatos de derecha, en particular de la UDI, dedican un porcentaje menor de su gasto a propaganda. La mujeres gastan más que los hombres y destinan un porcentaje menor a propaganda. Los candidatos en comunas con más ruralidad y mayor pobreza gastan menos en propaganda y más en desplazamientos y servicios. En comunas con más escolaridad, los candidatos gastan más en servicio

Say you fix, enjoy and relax : the deleterious effect of peg announcements on fiscal discipline

This paper explores the impact of actual exchange rate regimes on fiscal discipline, which we purportedly link to the effect of announcing the peg and to the availability of external funds. To stress this point, the focus of the analysis is emerging markets spanning from the beginning of the nineties, given the importance of financial integration in the last fifteen years and the centrality of external financing for these countries. We empirically show that announcing the pegs has deleterious effects on fiscal discipline, while ¿de facto¿ pegs which have not been announced deliver superior fiscal outcomes. The evidence suggests that this is due to the initial positive credibility shock of the announcement, which allows for easier and less costly access to the financing of fiscal deficits in emerging countries

Economic MPC with Modifier Adaptation using Transient Measurements

Producción CientíficaThis paper presents a method to estimate process dynamic gradients along the transient that combined with the idea of Modifier Adaptation (MA) improves the economic cost fuction of the examples presented. The gradient estimation method, called TMA, aims to reduce the large convergence time required to traditional MA in processes of slow dynamics. TMA is used with an economic predictive control with MA (eMPC+TMA) and was applied in two case studies: a simulation of the Williams-Otto reactor and a hybrid laboratory plant based on the Van de Vusse reactor. The results show that eMPC+TMA could reach the plant real steady-state optimum despite process-model mismatch, due to the inclusion of the effect of process dynamics in the TMA algorithm. Despite the estimation errors, the proposed methodology improved the profit of the experimental case study, with respect to the use of an eMPC with no modifiers, by about 20% for the unconstrained case, and by 130% in the constrained case.Junta de Castilla y León (CLU 2017-09 and UIC 233)FEDER - AEI (PGC2018-099312-B-C31

Evolution of the presence and success of female candidates in Chile, 1989-2009

introduces the explanations that are likely to account for the presence of women in electedoffices. Based on them, we analyze the evolution of women in elected office in Chile between the return of democracy in 1989 and 2009. We use data from 17 elections and 37.487 candidates. 19,4 percent of them, were women. And only 16,3 percent of the 12.161 candidates elected to either the legislature or local governments were women. The number of female candidates and their success rate have increased, especially in local elections. Moreover, we show that in elections with lower levels of proportionality —as mayors, deputies and senators— there are fewer female candidates and winners. Left-wing parties present more female candidates, whereas right-wing parties manage to get a higher rate of their female candidates elected. Finally, we show that the election of Michelle Bachelet as Chile’s first woman president did not have an impact on the number of female candidates or on their electoral success in the municipal elections of 2008 or the legislative elections of 2009. Institutional variables account for the higher number of female candidates in more proportional elections as well as their higher success rate both in local elections and elections with higher proportional representation.</p

Los mensajes de la propaganda televisiva en las campañas presidenciales de Michelle Bachelet y Sebastián Piñera en Chile, 2005-2013

Explicamos la varianza en los temas de los spots televisivos a partir de las características de cada contienda electoral, de las prioridades de la gente, de las trayectorias y del género de los candidatos. Utilizamos datos de 1 885 menciones a temas de campaña en 37 924 segundos de las franjas televisivas de los candidatos presidenciales Michelle Bachelet (2005 y 2013) y Sebastián Piñera (2005 y 2009) en Chile. Los mensajes convergen con más facilidad hacia el votante medio cuando hay un candidato por sector. Los candidatos se enfocan más en sus prioridades que en las de la opinión pública y no enfatizan atributos retrospectivos cuando son expresidentes. Por su parte, las candidatas no hablan más sobre de temas de género.We explain the variance in television spots as a function of the characteristics of each election, people's priorities and candidates' trajectories and gender. With data from 1 885 references to different campaign issues in 37 924 seconds of television ads during the campaigns of presidential candidates Michelle Bachelet (2005 and 2013) and Sebastián Piñera (2005 and 2009) we analyze the variance in their campaign issues. Campaign messages converge more easily toward the median voter when there is one candidate per sector. Candidates focus on their own priorities more than on public opinion's priorities. They do not emphasize retrospective attributes when they are former presidents and women candidates do not focus more on gender issues

Banca extranjera y estabilidad financiera en los países en proceso de adhesión a la Unión Europea

Artículo de revist